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Forum:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/Epsilon
This is a Wikipedia Archive The following forum is a transclusion of tropical discussion on Wikipedia talk pages which occurred before the existence of the Hurricane Wiki. It is simply provided here for ease of access. 30L.Epsilon AoI: Mid-Atlantic Source: http://www.livejournal.com/users/mpadams/56049.html http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/271127.shtml? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir2-loop.html http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_alphabet Two low-level swirls are moving south into the mid-Atlantic tropics. Forecast suggests one will become a cyclone: one has more complete circulation; the other has the flare of a tropical wave. The models and the forecast favor the wave-looking cell to become Epsilon. Assuming that's the case, if the other one does anything, it'd become Zeta. Models... http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2005112712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2005112712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2005112700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2005112712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation :Three days from the end of the season and the tropics seem to want to go to the bitter end this year...that's 2005 for you! Could a December storm be in order? CrazyC83 23:18, 27 November 2005 (UTC) ::It appears Delta left us a present: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/images/xxirg8n.GIF look above the number 30 on the upper right. It looks interesting but I don't see it becoming anything, certenly not Epsilon. Follow the line under the 30 just off the page and there's Delta. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - '' '' 04:19, 28 November 2005 (UTC) ::: I'm not sure what it means at the formation stage, but cyclone phase analysis of the models interprets it as warm-core. --AySz88^- 04:23, 28 November 2005 (UTC) From the TWO: A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. This season just refuses to give up! - Cuivienen 15:03, 28 November 2005 (UTC) 96L.INVEST The backup site says 96L.Invest has formed. —''The preceding unsigned comment was added by'' 200.124.47.130 (talk • ) }. :The main Navy site is down (grrrrr...). NHC says the storm has gotten better organized but it still doesn't look too impressive on the sat imagery. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - '' '' 23:26, 28 November 2005 (UTC) ::So the season clearly doesn't want to end...could we see Epsilon extend the season out??? CrazyC83 02:13, 29 November 2005 (UTC) :::The sat imagery has suddenly become less impressive... -- E. Brown Tropical Storm Epsilon Wow, another record tied (most November storms)! This season just doesn't want to end. Could we hit 30 tropical depressions??? CrazyC83 15:44, 29 November 2005 (UTC) :Looks like Delta's little brother, only they took a little longer to pull the trigger on Delta. With 3 storms we tied the November record, but does someone have the years we tied or am I gonna have to look that up? The Great Zo 17:12, 29 November 2005 (UTC) ::According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2005_Atlantic_hurricane_season/records_not_broken 2001 had 3 and there were 2 in 1888, 1961, 1969, 1980 & 1994. crandles 21:15, 29 November 2005 (UTC) :Does 2005 Atlantic hurricane season have more cyclones in this year so far than 2005 Pacific typhoon season? ::With Epsilon, we're again tied with the typhoon season at 26 storms. --Golbez 19:44, 29 November 2005 (UTC) ::: That's amazing, what's the record for most number of storms in the east pacific, have we broken that yet? That would be really wierd. TimL 20:02, 29 November 2005 (UTC) :::: I'm quite certain that the east Pacific record is 24, but I cannot say what year. (I am aware that the East Pacific name list was excatly exahausted one year, and as it has 24 names for each year, that must make the record for that basin 24.) --EMS | Talk 20:19, 29 November 2005 (UTC) ::::: You are correct. The record Eastern Pacific season with 24 named storms is 1992. In addition, the current typhoon season has only 23 named storms, not 26. There are 26 entries on the Wikipedia page, but three are only depressions. (One depression was "named" for Filipino weather reports, but that doesn't count.) --DavidK93 21:19, 29 November 2005 (UTC) :::::: Actually, two of them were named. They also were not even depressions - only Invest-level storms - but PAGASA jumps the gun a lot. - Cuivienen 22:30, 29 November 2005 (UTC) An interesting tidbit: if Q,U,X,Y,Z were not skipped, this would be the "Z" storm. Truly incredible. I think the season should be kept as a current event until the ball drops in Times Square. About the only record not broken was major hurricanes, and AFAIK there has never been one in December. CrazyC83 00:51, 30 November 2005 (UTC) :I say we pull the current events tag on time (midnight Eastern Thursday morning), but move it to the Epsilon section, and in the future, in the section of any active storm. NSLE (讨论+ ) 00:53, 30 November 2005 (UTC) :: I agree with the new year's idea. With Epsilon and possible Zeta still going, that techinally means that the season itself is still active.209.62.224.245 02:01, 30 November 2005 (UTC) :::The season officially ends Thursday morning. We should give factual info, and the season will no longer be active come Thursday, de facto. NSLE (讨论+ ) 02:02, 30 November 2005 (UTC) ::::What is the point of the current events tag? Isn't it to tell readers "Information may change rapidly as the event progresses"? So, as long as there is/could be an active storm to which would fall under "2005 Atlantic hurricane season", the event is still current. The official start and end of the season are arbitrary dates encompassing the time when most cyclones form. The only reason for us to remove the current events tag is if we decide to put any December storms into another article, like "2005 Atlantic off-season cyclones" or something. -PK9 18:15, 30 November 2005 (UTC) :::::[[WP:BOLD|'Be bold']] says Wikipedia. I'm going to remove that tag come midnight Eastern and move it down to Epsilon's area, as the REST of the article is unlikely to have "rapid information change". I'll also change the infobox. NSLE (讨论+ ) 00:28, 1 December 2005 (UTC) :::::Well I don't want to get into an edit war, so unless someone else takes my side you win. But your reasoning is flawed. If that were the case, throughout the season we should only have had the current events tag on the active storm, be it Katria or Stan or Beta, etc. An active storm makes the season a current event. -PK9 20:55, 1 December 2005 (UTC) ::Of course the season is still a current event. Just because it ended doesn't mean it's not a current event; there's still the aftermath to deal with. You wouldn't take the tag away from Katrina the moment the storm dissapated would you? I believe today has seen more editing than most days of the season, because of the november summary. Information will continue to be updated rapidly as the end-of-season reports are released. That said, I have little interest in arguing about this; so long as the disclaimer is sufficient I don't care if is used. And I fully agree with changing (most) information in the season to use the past tense. Jdorje 21:08, 1 December 2005 (UTC) I made this post earlier but it somehow vanished without a trace. I had more info than this to. I'm so pissed I want to destroy something: ::This is is crazy. We are now three storms ahead of the Western Pacific and there isn't even an invest there yet. Even the NHC guys are beginning to show fatigue. From the 10 am discussion: ::...THE 26TH NAMED STORM OF THE APPARENTLY NEVER ENDING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. ::This kind of activity is incredible in any basin, even the West Pacific (their average is about 18-20). -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - '' '' 05:18, 30 November 2005 (UTC) :::Actually, the WPac's average is more like 30 a year, but if you count only June through November it's about 25. We do have a WPac invest right now. NSLE (讨论+ ) 05:26, 30 November 2005 (UTC) The bad news is, they expect another bad year in 2006. I think my prediction of 16 named storms might be a low one now... CrazyC83 15:20, 30 November 2005 (UTC) According to CrazyC83 (first post in this section), we have tied for the most storms forming during November. Can we add that in to the article? 165.161.3.13 18:34, 30 November 2005 (UTC) :Absolutely! That is notable! 2001 was another year with three November storms (maybe more?) CrazyC83 23:08, 30 November 2005 (UTC) Looks like it is sorta on the decline in convection wise. User:Benny Wags 22:22, 30 november 2005 :Looks like a hurricane to me...I don't know why they have held it at tropical storm intensity...are they leery on upgrading a storm to a hurricane as we enter December? CrazyC83 04:10, 1 December 2005 (UTC) :I agree, it looks very impressive on satellite imagery, lots of convection flaring up with good outer bands. It looks like strong Cat 1 hurricane to me. It even looks healthier than it did when they had it pegged at 70mph. 165.234.103.69 17:34, 1 December 2005 (UTC) ::The infrared looks pretty pitiful actually: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg. Notice how there are very little thunderstorms in this thing. It talks the talk but doesn't walk the walk. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - '' '' 04:06, 2 December 2005 (UTC) Hurricane Epsilon And now, it's a hurricane!! — Super-Magician (talk • • count) ★ 14:37, 2 December 2005 (UTC) Looks even better on Satellite now, clearly formed eye with a good deal of convection considering the time of year and location. 165.234.117.42 15:03, 2 December 2005 (UTC) :Seems that he went up and down, I guess they finally gave in and declared Epsilon a hurricane. CrazyC83 15:15, 2 December 2005 (UTC) How many Hurricanes have there been in December before? SargeAbernathy 16:01, 2 December 2005 (UTC) :Not many. There was Alice in 1954. Lili in 1984. There was one way back in 1887. I'm probably missing a few. Bottom line is that they are very rare. The surprises just keep on coming don't they? -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - '' '' 16:06, 2 December 2005 (UTC) ::From Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=253&tstamp=200512: "Epsilon joins the ranks of Hurricane Nichole (1998), Hurricane Lili (1984), Hurricane Alice (1954), an unnamed 1925 storm, and an unnamed hurricane from 1887 as the only December hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic."--Jyril 17:56, 2 December 2005 (UTC) :Also, what is the record for longest lasting hurricane in December..Epsilon doesn't seem to want to weaken. It has been a hurricane for 24 hours now.I checked and it looks like Lili maintained it's hurricane strength for about 60 hours.Weatherman90 15:38, 3 December 2005 (UTC) Does anyone know how to get strengh information on these previous hurricanes? GOING BACK TO 1851... HISTORICAL RECORDS INDICATE EPSILON IS ONLY THE FIFTH HURRICANE TO FORM DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. OTHER DECEMBER HURRICANES ARE... UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED 1925... ALICE #2 IN 1954... AND LILI 1984. EPSILON IS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH HURRICANE TO EVER OCCUR DURING DECEMBER... INCLUDING UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED 1925... ALICE #2 IN 1954... LILI 1984... AND NICOLE 1998. 21:17, 2 December 2005 (UTC) :Check the Unisys archives. --Golbez 21:28, 2 December 2005 (UTC) Franklin: AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT...THIS EVENING'S QUIKSCAT PASSES MISSED THE CYCLONE. Whee, sarcasm :D --The Great Zo 03:10, 3 December 2005 (UTC) Stewart summed up the feelings of all of us when she said: HOPEFULLY THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE... NOGAPS... AND GFDN MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL NOT MATERIALIZE SO THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON CAN FINALLY END. That's goddamn right. The NHC guys are probably about to die of exhaustion. They have been working 'round the clock for the past 5 months. Needless to say, they need a long frickin' break. A long frickin break from the long frickin' season that didn't allow anyone south of the Mason-Dixon Line anything resembling a break. Champagne corks might pop when Epsilon dissipates. A Weather Channel reporter put it nicely. He said, "Enough. It just needs to end. We're tired. We're tired of tropical cyclones, let's move on to blizzards or something." (He was covering Tammy by the way, when he said that!) -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - '' '' 07:03, 3 December 2005 (UTC) ....AN EYE CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH MODEST CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. EVENTUALLY COOLER WATER AND SLOWLY INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE BUT AS SEEN YESTERDAY INTENSITY CHANGES ARE TOUGH TO FORECAST! (Forecaster Blake) Covering themselves? :p Though they're allowed mistakes, especially nowadays and with the storm nowhere close to land. --AySz88^- 07:07, 3 December 2005 (UTC) Hello, just a little remark from a passer-by: In mathematics, (lower-case) epsilon is the Greek letter usually used to denote an extremely small quantity (and delta too if epsilon is already used elsewhere). So I myself think it is pretty cool to see the words "Hurricane Epsilon" side-by-side! Anyway, just a useless comment from someone studying too much mathematics… -- KittySaturn 08:25, 3 December 2005 (UTC) ...EPSILON STRENGTHENS AGAINST ALL ODDS... I think the guys at the NHC are getting annoyed that their forecasts aren't working out. - Cuivienen 21:21, 3 December 2005 (UTC) I'm thinking because they want Epsilon to just go away so they can put this season behind them but Epsilon wants a piece of history and is not giving up. Who knows it could be a hurricane for sometime now! A Major hurricane tough would really annoy them. tdwuhs :Epsilon sees a shot at the Greek Letter Society ACE championship,could lock it up tomorrow morning.I hope strongest "Epsilon" storm ever is a record locked up for years to come...Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 00:08, 4 December 2005 (UTC) ::Tdwuhs is exactly right. However, the conditions Epsilon is in are terrible. For all intents and purposes, this thing should be weakening right now. This storm just doesn't want to quit. Neither does the season it seems like. The discussion said that Epsilon appears to be running from the forces that will eventually destroy it. I looked at the water vapor loop and it does indeed look that way. He's like a criminal running from the law. And, just like most police chases, it'll catch up with Epsilon eventually. Most likely when it hits that high pressure block ahead of it. Louis, I hope to God that we never have another Epsilon. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - '' '' 00:22, 4 December 2005 (UTC) ::: At least that one-upping D-E-K-R-W chain is over (that better not jinx it!) and it's way out in the middle of the Atlantic, projected to be of no harm (even to the islands). I wonder if we'll be seeing more of these mid-atlantic anomolous hurricanes, there sure seems to be a lot this year. (If nothing in the season makes landfall, I'd love to see another Epsilon, but of course the chances of nothing making landfall are slim at that point.) --AySz88^- 01:58, 4 December 2005 (UTC) Of course, you never know what could happen later in December...Zeta is sure going to try to make herself a piece of history...but in deteriorating tropical conditions... CrazyC83 03:20, 4 December 2005 (UTC) THE CLOUD PATTERN IS REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A HURRICANE AT HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER... That sounds like sarcasm too. They can only have Lili to compare (unless friendly Roswell aliens came up with snapshots from 1925 and 1887!)--Keith Edkins 09:37, 4 December 2005 (UTC) Epsilon strengthens to 85 MPH! AND ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE FACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE BEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER ...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I HEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU? And the sarcasm continues --The Great Zo 14:55, 4 December 2005 (UTC) I just got this picture of the meterologists at the NHC just sitting there with there mouths hanging open after every update. Maybe one muttering, "but... but.... but..." every so often. Donovan Ravenhull 15:11, 4 December 2005 (UTC) Did any other December hurricane reach 979mb? Weatherman90 15:23, 4 December 2005 (UTC) Yes, at midnight, december first 1998, Nicole was a 75 knot, cat 1 hurricane with 979 mb, http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/history.asp —''The preceding unsigned comment was added by'' 195.169.212.143 (talk • ) 15:50, December 4, 2005 (UTC). This picture says it all - the path of Vince invading their table, running out of white letters and breaking out a box of black ones.... I wish it could be put in the article, but I don't think we can use it (AP Photo). What a season. --AySz88^- 16:32, 4 December 2005 (UTC) :Right now I wouldn't be surprised if Epsilon became a Category 2 hurricane before it started weakening...he sure is a fighter!!! CrazyC83 16:40, 4 December 2005 (UTC) If you look at the chart they have Wilma's winds at 185! What does this mean? They didn't want to give us the right information or what? http://www.firstcoastnews.com/news/usworld/news-article.aspx?storyid=48357 tdwuhs :They also have Cindy at 75, but Emily at 155. Is this something of a spoiler for what the storm reports will change? - Cuivienen 18:28, 4 December 2005 (UTC) :: There is already a discussion on this below. --AySz88^- 18:41, 4 December 2005 (UTC) :I may be out of my league here, but isn't Epsilon one of those cyclones which are relatively shallow and compact compared to bona fide tropical cyclones? Perhaps this makes it less suspectible to wind shear. --Mikoyan21 18:45, 4 December 2005 (UTC) Wow, if Epsilon can hold on to it's hurricane status (which it will considering all the weird trends its breaking) till tomorrow around 11 am it will be the longest December hurricane! If the NHC workers weren't so tired of storms this year do you think they would have hype up a storm like Epsilon? tdwuhs WITH THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION CONTINUING IT SEEMS THAT AN IMMINENT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS...ALAS...A LOST CAUSE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN Poor Dr Franklin - a mountain of Tropical Cyclone Reports to produce before June (if he's lucky!) and this wretched season just won't end...--Keith Edkins 11:34, 5 December 2005 (UTC) :The 10 AM EST advisory for Dec. 5 keeps Epsilon at 80 mph. By word from tdwuhs above, that'd be good enough for longest-lasting hurricane in December. :I'll tell you all what Epsilon is-- an insult to the NHC. After a year of very hard work and, generally, highly-impressive forecasts for large and strong hurricanes... Epsilon comes along just to say "ha ha, you guys think you know what you're doing, but nature is still in control." If the thing stays at hurricane intensity for one more advisory, expect a shotgun blast to the NHC's in-house tracking map. Die, Epsilon, die! The Great Zo 14:58, 5 December 2005 (UTC) I AM AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ANY MORE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF EPSILON AND WILL JUST FOLLOW SHIPS AND GFDL WHICH ARE THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE. I really feel sorry for Avila; I think he's just going absolutely nutso at this point. I can just imagine him quitting the NHC and retiring to Antarctica. Where a rogue hurricane will kill him in 2006. --DavidK93 15:54, 5 December 2005 (UTC) :Me too, it's like Epsilon is just out there trying to torture forecasters more than anything. Of course, by the time this is over, Zeta could make herself known, and extend the season farther into overtime. Will the NHC even get a break this year or will we have storms continuing to develop over colder water? I'm starting to want to move this to a separate article on the basis of historical notability...but I won't until there is a strong voice in support. CrazyC83 17:11, 5 December 2005 (UTC) :: I'll bet that Epsilon gets retired out of spite. "Never again!" 203.166.111.34 23:54, 5 December 2005 (UTC) : Man, it makes me want to send them a "Relax and feel well" card... Titoxd(?!? - did you read this?) 02:14, 6 December 2005 (UTC) I just edited the current info to say 'anticipated southward movement.' There was no significant southward movment to the track for some hours after the 10am (as of around noon CST / 1800Z Dec 5th), so the southward movement didn't start until then. To note: there were at least four track forecasts before the movement to the track was adjusted to the ESE, where Epsilon went to the south of the forecast points, sometimes not even making the first forecast point (fairly unusual). But, as soon as they adjusted to the expected southward movement and turn to the SW, Epsilon started moving pretty much due east, and the last two track forecasts have missed the other direction, as Epsilon has moved to the north of the track points. This all points to the dependency on recon and dropsonde information for accurate track forecasts. I bet what is really making everyone crazy at NHC TPC right now is the inability to send out even one recon, not just for the normal reasons, but for a chance to get some data to understand what is making Epsilon go. Is it still some kind of hybrid? Is there some kind of baroclinic process going on, that can only occur in the colder environment? Is wind shear not affecting it mainly because convection is shallow, or is the outflow strong enough to deflect the wind shear? Why are the eye and eyewall so well-defined for such a weak tropical storm? At least we know the wind estimates are not so far off because of the occasional quikscat. Mkieper 20:54, 5 December 2005 (UTC) :Epsilon is definitely weakening now. On the satellite loop, you can see the southeastern portion of the eye breaking apart. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html Weatherman90 01:06, 6 December 2005 (UTC) Epsilon looks like it's 'going south' rapidly...starting to tilt vertically and decouple from the wind shear, and the convection eroded to the SE again. I'm convinced, now, in retrospect that it was still a hybrid system and receiving a shot of baroclinic energy from the front that moved to the north, in some fashion, after replaying the NW ATL loop from today and then looking at the floater. That would explain the intensity over the last three days. Also...the slowdown weakened it because of the cooler water. I was thinking previously that it was a shallow storm and that was why the shear was not affecting it; now I think there is a possibility that it was not so shallow, and the outflow was fairly strong, enough to hold off the shear. Also another possible explanation...Epsilon is moving into an area with stronger winds at 350-500mb level, rather than 100-250mb, and if it was shallow, these strong winds at the lower level are now able to do what the higher shear could not. Would appreciate any feedback on which might be more plausible. Mkieper 01:09, 6 December 2005 (UTC) On the other hand it almost looks as if it is starting to rebuild that portion of the eye, there is now a large band of weak convection in the SE portion of they eye, and that large band is starting to fire up a bit as of the latest image. Who knows with epsilon, it might not be done yet after all. Weatherman90 3:02, 6 December 2005 (UTC) I don't have a clue now. It still looks decoupled a bit, but the convection did wrap back around and the outflow is back... It's even looking less elongated. Almost like one of those cartoon characters that takes a corner too sharply and the head keeps going the original direction, then rubber-bands back to the body...it turned the corner and the upper level circ almost didn't come along. The main convection does seem oddly cut off from the center now, though. Mkieper 05:07, December 6, 2005 (UTC) Well now it is more elongated but it does appear that the convection on the west might break away leaving a very small Epsilon.Mkieper 05:58, 6 December 2005 (UTC) It is really starting to struggle now. Now the northern eye is starting to fade away. I was predicting it at tropical storm strength at this advisory, but now I think it might hold together until tomorrow yet. Aww..poor ickle Epsilon. Wait. It looks like it's starting to recover that northern eye. the SE pprtion is almost normal, and his eye looks really ovalish. I wouldn't be suprised if he stregthened. We all know he's tourture. If we have another T.S, Zeta, expect it to go through at the end of Dec. and into Jan. -hides under chair- Bloing 9:54, 6 December 2005. JUST WHEN I WAS TEMPTED TO REDUCE THE INTENSITY TO 60 KT... EPSILON STARTED TO AGAIN WRAP SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS OF MODEST DEPTH TIGHTLY AROUND THE CENTER... SO IT REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE. Knabb this time. Maybe Avila finally took a nap. I say forget "poor ickle Epsilon" and concentrate on poor ickle Lixion Avila, who seriously needs a hug and some hot cocoa. --DavidK93 16:17, 6 December 2005 (UTC) It seems like they may have traded times...Knabb did the first overnight (10pm), Avila covered the last overnight that Knabb would normally have covered (4am), and then Knabb came back for the 10am, which has been Avila's the last couple of days. I don't know what the shift rotation is there. The "small Epsilon" I wrote about last night did form, and is having a rough time today. Dry air and shear is helping to break down the convection every time it rebuilds. The eye and central organization looked weak this morning but noontime the structure appears to have firmed up again, even with continued dry air entrainment breaking down the ring of convection around the eye. This is the first time however we have seen shear ripping the tops of convection off the center ring, in spite of the CIMSS wind shear product reducing the shear the first time in days to below 20 kts (don't trust that so much...always go by what you can see on sat images and use it in conjunction with that).Mkieper 18:07, 6 December 2005 (UTC) Still improving and I think they'll leave it a hurricane at the 4pm. Mkieper 20:03, 6 December 2005 (UTC) WHAT IS LEFT OF EPSILON IS NOW FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL THE MODELS TO BECOME INVOLVED IN SOME WAY WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE FRONT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF EPSILON IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. I HESITATE TO MENTION THAT MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... AFTER ABSORBING EPSILON... TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH OF 30N ON DAY 5 TO THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. I imagine Knabb and Avila just holding each other while the world ends. --DavidK93 21:09, 6 December 2005 (UTC) THE END IS IN SIGHT. IT REALLY REALLY IS. BUT IN THE MEANTIME... EPSILON CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS. I'm laughing so hard, but feeling bad for doing it... Poor forecasters.... And this is Franklin, not Knabb or Avila. --AySz88^- 02:42, 7 December 2005 (UTC) :Are they really sure about that? He's defying everything!!! This is like a broken record... CrazyC83 03:00, 7 December 2005 (UTC) Funny part of all this is that every NHC forecast has had demise of Epsilon after 48 hours for, oh, 6 days straight, and it is still "48 hours away". That said, I truly believe this time it is for real, it is going down, honest. I think that in a paradoxical way, entering warmer conditions may actually weaken the storm, because then it becomes more tropical and thus, more vulnerable to hostile conditions and it no longer has the extratropical processes which apparently kept it going against all odds. --Mikoyan21 03:04, 7 December 2005 (UTC) ::When he said 'The end is in sight', he meant that Epsilon's dissipation is in sight, not the end of the world. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - '' '' 04:28, 7 December 2005 (UTC) ::: Dr. Avila comes back from his nice rest only to see his colleague's comment about the end, and then this: THE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING TO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS STILL A HURRICANE. AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING...THE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE....KICKING THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS BACK UP AGAIN. ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY. ::: Poor Dr. Avila, he should permanently hand this storm to Knabb or Franklin. Also, note this: I HAVE NO OPTION BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING AT A FAST PACE. NEVERTHERELESS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. ::: The NHC seem to think Epsilon could outsmart them again. NSLE (T+ +CVU) 08:40, 7 December 2005 (UTC) Okay. NOWI can say poor ickle Knabb and Avila, as well as Franklin. It seems to me that Epsilon is holding a whip and whipping NHC. Good news though, I looked at the sattelite of Epsilon, and the eye looks poorly defined. really bad oval look to it. I think it may FINALLY be downgraded soon. Bloing :Here I have to go against the NHC on this one. I actually think strengthening is in order. This time tomorrow, I think it will still be a hurricane, and a stronger one than it is now. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Epsilon has not reached peak intensity yet... CrazyC83 17:05, 7 December 2005 (UTC) :Aww. It looks like its falling apart. Good kitty 19:24, 7 December 2005 (UTC) Yeah the east part of the hurricane is falling apart, its being attacked by strong wind shear, as of rigth now... i say it's still a hurricane as it still has an eye, but i only give it a couple more hours before the shear completely makes they eye collapse, and then rapid weaking will(hopefully) occur. DanielES15 21:33, 7 December 2005 (UTC) It appears that the advisories and discussions are now being issued by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. I'm not sure what the significance of that is; I thought the HPC usually reports on extratropical and non-tropical low pressure systems in the Atlantic. Is this because Epsilon's fate is really sealed this time? Was the NHC Epsil-utely fed up with this system? Is this something that should be reflected in the article? --DavidK93 21:52, 7 December 2005 (UTC) :It's likely only a temporary change for this advisory. Occasionally, the HPC has had to release advisories for the NHC before, perhaps due to equpiment problems or scheduled service or upgrades that kept the NHC from issuing the advisory themselves. When I worked at the NWS in Detroit this summer, occasionally our office would issue things for Grand Rapids, and vice versa, if was necessary to do so for the reasons listed above. The Great Zo 22:07, 7 December 2005 (UTC) Epsilon looks very ragged at the moment http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html, if it isn't a tropical storm by the 10pm EST advisory, I will probably go insane. Weatherman90 22:39, 7 December 2005 (UTC) Epsilon is going down - and FAST. Pressure has risen 7mb, winds down to 65mph. Avila and the gang are probably having a party at the moment. Turns out I don't have to go insane after all. Weatherman90 02:53, 8 December 2005 (UTC) WHOOT! Pop the champaigne!! (how do you spell it?) 40 MPH, and I thik 11:00 P.M. is the last Advisory for ze torture man!! He looks like Gamma as a Tropical Depression! Skinned to where only the circulation is showing! Good 'ol wind shear! Bloing :Finally, his luck ran out...now is the season over? Or do we still have a surprise left? CrazyC83 14:30, 8 December 2005 (UTC) O.o I looked at Wunderblog's blog about Epsilon's Death, and they said the remnant circulation has a small chance of becoming Zeta. In about..oh..four days. Please let it not be like Epsilon. Though if she won't, she would obviously not form anyway. Everyone is sick of it. EDIT: Oh crap! I spelled my name wrong because of that! Bloing 8:49, 8 December 2005 (UTC) :The 2005 season finally ends! Epsilon surrenders at last. Epsilon reminded me much of the season; it just wouldn't quit. It's over, it's finally over! Now the NHC guys get a much needed break. -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - '' '' 15:09, 8 December 2005 (UTC) ...EPSILON WEAKENING RAPIDLY...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... ...IT IS ABOUT TIME... We love you, Mr.Avila, just so you know :) Dunemaire 15:16, 8 December 2005 (UTC) :Pssssst! It's Dr. Avila. But we do love him. --DavidK93 15:52, 8 December 2005 (UTC) : Whoever keeps changing the nice Epsilon photo back to that ugly one with the orange lines, PLEASE STOP!! Weatherman90 01:30, 9 December 2005 (UTC) Epsilon's ACE calcs :You filled in miles per hour in stead of knots ... —''The preceding unsigned comment was added by'' 195.169.212.143 (talk • ) }. ::I've made corrections on the table based on the table from the statistics discussion page. Since there was no other Episilon ACE table discussion here, I didn't want anyone to get confused and think those were the correct numbers. --PK9 22:18, 2 December 2005 (UTC) *''Sorry'', I didn't know the ACE table was on the Talk: Statistics page, I assumed I was making the first one. Since there's no need for it here, I deleted the table (and my rather embarrassing comment). --Mark J 13:20, 3 December 2005 (UTC)